(This was an article written for a theoretical Yorkshire based news webpage during my time at University of Leeds)
We’re 75% of the way through the season and the bottom 9 are separated by just 5 points. Leeds sit second bottom with a difficult run in ahead of them.
Unfortunately for Leeds fans there’s reason for concern in the final 12 games, most notably having to face 5 of the current top 6.
But how do the run ins rank in terms of difficulty?
1. Crystal Palace
Patrick Vieira’s side have been on a slide since the World Cup. They currently sit in 12th, but with just one win since the restart, which came on New Year’s Eve away to Bournemouth, there’s reason for concern. They’ve failed to score more than one goal since that victory and have only done so six times total this season.
Despite these concerns the South London side have undoubtedly the easiest run in. The only team to play all 8 of the other relegation candidates, and in their case all 8 below them. Furthermore they only play two of the current top 6, Arsenal away in game week (GW) 28 and Tottenham in GW35 at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
Hardest Run
Their hardest run in their final 12 games comes in their next two games. A difficult trip away to Brighton tomorrow (Wednesday 15th March) and then their trip to the Emirates to face league leaders Arsenal. So not only do Palace have the easiest run in they’re hardest stretch of games comes at the earliest point possible.
‘Must Get Something’ Run.
Their run from GW30 to 34 will be important, although there are numerous runs they should get something from. GW30 to GW34 sees Palace play Leeds, Southampton, Everton, Wolves and West Ham.
Home vs Away
Selhurst Park is an infamously difficult place to go and get a result. However this season they have the 4th worst home record (4W 5D 5L) in the league picking up 17 of their 27 total points. However, there final 5 remaining home games are all against teams below them. Their away record is 14th best in the league, only Southampton and Leicester have been better away out of the bottom 9. With 7 away games in the run in they’ll be hoping to keep a relatively good away record.
If Patrick Vieira takes his side down it will be one of the greatest bottle jobs in the Premier League
2. Leicester
Leicester have been heavily dependent on star player James Maddison to get results this season, picking up 21 points when he’s featured and just 3 when he’s been injured/suspended. He’s featured in 19 of the 26 played and has 9 goals and 5 assists.
They currently sit 16th with 6 of the 8 around them to play. Five of the six come before GW34 so if they can get a good number of points from those five games they should be safe. They have 3 of the top 6 to play and Liverpool and Newcastle in the final 3 games before West Ham at the King Power on the final day.
Hardest Run
The hardest run left is in the final four games from GW35-37. Starting with Fulham away they then play Liverpool at home and then Newcastle away. With all three currently in the fight for Europe, especially Liverpool and Newcastle fighting for Champions League.
‘Must Get Something’ Run
The three prior to that run will be crucial to survival. Wolves at home, Leeds away then Everton at home. It’s a similar story to others but if they don’t get something from these games there will be worries that the 2015/16 Premier League Champions could go down with that difficult run afterwards.
Home vs Away
Leicester have split their points total home and away. They haven’t been able to make the King Power a fortress this season only picking up 12 points there this season, the 2nd worst home record in the league. But picking up 12 points away sees them have the 13th best away record.
The key in this run in will be turning some of their losses into wins. With just 3 draws all season, the joint lowest in the league, those points could be crucial when not playing well.
3. Bournemouth
Coming off arguably the 3 hardest games in the league currently against Man City, Arsenal and then Liverpool, the Cherries managed to still take 3 points from the possible 9 and it should have been more after a 97th minute Reiss Nelson equaliser to deny them a point at the Emirates.
Currently in 18th Gary O’Neil has found ways to get results despite not playing well. Their new January signings have had an instant impact. None more so than Dango Ouattara who has 3 assists in his 7 appearances and could have had a goal or two to add to that if he took his chances.
Bournemouth face 6 of the 8 teams in the relegation battle, Wolves and Forest the only two they don’t play. Like Palace they also only play two of the top 6, Spurs away in GW31 and Man Utd at home in GW37.
Hardest Run
Bournemouth will need to have safety guaranteed before their final 4 games of the season. Chelsea at home, Palace away, Man Utd at Home and Everton away on the final day could see Cherries fans very anxious if they need something to survive from those games.
‘Must Get Something’ Run
The 3 games prior to that final 4 games Bournemouth will have to get something from. West Ham at home, Southampton away and Leeds at home. The Cherries will likely be doomed to go down if they fail to pick up points in this run.
Home vs Away
Bournemouth have got two-thirds of their points at home, 16 points, but still have the 3rd worst home record in the league. Their away record is 4th worst picking up just 8 points on the road. The Cherries home record will be vital to their survival and following their 1-0 win at the Vitality they’ll hope it can become a fortress in the last 12 games.
Despite being the 3rd easiest run in Bournemouth fans will still be very anxious about going down.
4. Wolves
Julen Lopetegui has been a revelation in Wolverhampton since his appointment on November 5th, taking charge of his first game after the World Cup. Before his appointment they had just 10 points and were bottom at the World Cup break. Since the restart Wolves have the 7th best form in the league.
With 5 of the 8 to play, 4 of which are 12th, 14th, 15th and 16th, they don’t have the easiest of the relegation rivals to play. But their great form since the restart will give hope that the difficulty of those around them likely won’t worry them. Their run is made even easier by facing just two of the Top 6, Arsenal and Manchester United.
Hardest Run
The final 3 games see them face Manchester United, Everton then Arsenal on the final day. Everton are the only of those three at home and could be very difficult if both need results to stay up. Once again it’s going to be important Wolves pick up their points early in this run in.
‘Must Get Something’ Run
The lengthiest run of good games so far, but accounting for some fortunate home results, comes in their next 6 games. Leeds, Forest, Chelsea at home, Brentford at home, Leicester and Palace. The two middle fixtures see Wolves play teams with an outside chance at Europe but in a bit of no mans land. Wolves great form after the World Cup should see them pick up a good number of points from this stretch of games to keep them up and not have to worry about those final three games.
Home vs Away
Wolves have a good home and away record. 16th best at home and 15th best away. So there will be no relying on home form unlike others.
It feels very unlikely that Wolves will go down since their resurgence under Lopetegui but their run in is still not particularly easy.
5. Leeds
Leeds sit second bottom with their recent manager change bringing in Javi Gracia seeing them get 4 points 9. But there are big worries about relegation for the historic side.
These worries can be calmed potentially by the fact they play 6 of the 8 around them. They are arguably the six most difficult they could have, only avoiding Everton and Southampton in the final 12 games. But the job is then made significantly harder by playing 5 of the top 6, 3 of which come in the final 4 games.
Hardest Run
As just mentioned the final 4 games are extremely difficult for the Whites. City away, Newcastle at home, West Ham away then Spurs at home on the final day. It’s yet again a story of needing to get the points early. If Leeds are in the relegation zone going into the final four many would have them nailed on to go down,
‘Must Get Something’ Run
Leeds don’t have a run where they can potentially build significant momentum but the must win back to back games have to be Forest at home and Palace at home in the midweek game of GW29 and GW30. Forest are the worst in the league away from home and taking points away from Palace are a must. If they can get 6 from 6 in those two games there could be hopes of getting something from the game after at home to Liverpool
Home vs Away
Elland Road is a very difficult place to come to and once again Leeds have got the majority of their points there. 17 of the 13 have come at Elland Road and those home games in the run in will be crucial to survival. Just 6 points away from home (1W 3D) will have to be improved if Leeds are to survive.
Results at Elland Road are going to be crucial for survival and Leeds will likely also need some upsets along the way to survive.
6. West Ham
The Hammers have fallen off massively from their last two seasons and being in Europe certainly won’t help their survival hopes. But with the best squad in the bottom 9 if they don’t stay up many will be surprised.
Facing 5 of the bottom 8 around them, 3 of which are the 3 currently behind them there’s definitely positives for West Ham fans to look at in this run in. But 5 against the top 6 which are spread between their easier games makes things look more difficult.
Hardest Run
Newcastle at home, Fulham away then Arsenal at home after the international break is gonna be difficult. All still battling for Europe there’s a high chance of getting 0 from 9 in this run. However their Manchester City game being postponed currently where that game gets scheduled could be very important.
‘Must Get Something’ Run
Their current final three games of Brentford away, Leeds at home and Leicester away are unfortunately their best run in the run in. There’s a chance Brentford have nothing to play for at that point so could be there for the taking then Leeds will likely still need points so playing them at home could give the Hammers the edge. Leicester could also have nothing to play for on the final day and be there for the taking at the King Power.
Home vs Away
West Ham have been only picked up 6 points away from home, the joint worst in the league. Improving this record will be vital to survival. 18 points at home, 13th best, will also need to be maintained, especially if they can’t improve their away record.
West Ham are in the ‘too good to go down’ category but their European run and lack of a good run before the final three games could put worries in Hammers fans minds.
7. Southampton
The Saints are on their 3rd manager of the season after Hasenhuttl and Nathan Jones but now it’s a caretaker until the end of the season. They’ve managed to get 7 points from their last possible 12, including a win at Chelsea and draw at Old Trafford. This recent form has taken the south coast side from being favourites to go down to having a chance to survive.
Just 4 of the 8 to play however sees limited ‘easy’ games left for Southampton. This is worsened by the 5 games against the top 6 which include the title contenders Arsenal and Man City. Furthermore they play Brighton, Fulham and Brentford who all are pushing for a surprise European spot.
Hardest Run
Southampton’s hardest run comes in the middle of the run in. Man City at home, Palace away then Arsenal away. They’ve had results against the title contenders this season already, beating the Cityzens at home in the Carabao Cup and getting a draw against the league leaders at home. Palace’s poor home record could open up a chance of result there as well. Despite these positive signs there’s no doubt it’s a difficult three games.
‘Must Get Something’ Run
The Saints don’t have any easy run in the final 12 games, this is partly due to their horrific home form which we’ll get to soon. All their games against relegation rivals are spread out between difficult games so their best chance of picking up points will be continuing their current momentum into their next 3 games against Brentford, Spurs and West Ham before their difficult run.
Home vs Away
Southampton are the only team in the bottom 9 to have more away points than home points. They have the worst home record in the league (2W 3D 7L) and the best away record (4W 1D 9L) amongst the bottom 9. If they’re to survive getting their home form going is going to be important.
It’s looking bleak for Southampton, sitting bottom currently with no clear stretch to pick up points it’s going to be a difficult run in.
8. Everton
Dyche has brought light to Evertonians taking them to 15th in the table with results over Arsenal at home and relegation rivals in Leeds and Forest. A minor upset at the weekend against Brentford saw survival hopes increased further.
4 of 8 to play and difficult games at that won’t buoy confidence and 4 of the top 6 only hurt hopes even more. Out of those 8 games however 5 are at home. Everton’s home form to the latter end of last season was crucial to their survival and a rocking Goodison Park is a difficult place to get results.
Hardest Run
Their next three games are the most difficult facing Chelsea away as they’ve picked up some form finally before Tottenham at home and Manchester United away. Any points from these three games will greatly increase confidence.
‘Must Get Something’ Run
Their four after that could get things kickstarted again however, with home games against Fulham and Newcastle chances for upsets while going away to Selhurst park and Leicester. Results in those four games will be massive before another difficult three games against Brighton away, Man City at home and Wolves away.
Home vs Away
Everton have got 5 of their 6 wins at home this season but managed to get 5 draws away from home to minimise losses. As previously mentioned that home form is gonna be crucial to survival and if they can get the odd point away from home that could see the blue side of Merseyside do enough to survive.
Dyche has installed some confidence in Everton fans and if he can keep Goodison Park rocking there’ll be hopes but the run in looks very difficult.
9. Forest
Finally the hardest run in of the lot, Cooper’s Nottingham Forest. The City Ground is a fortress and has taken points off Liverpool and Man City this season but the horrendous away record causes worries.
Similar to others Forest never have a period in this final 12 where they can kick on and build momentum. With the difficult games spread out across the run in upsets could be vital.
Hardest Run
In the middle of the run in Forest have a run of 4 games battling for Europe. United at home, Liverpool away, Brighton at home then Brentford away. Difficult away games with an already poor away record, it’s going to be a really tough run. However, there’ll be hopes of upsets in the two home games.
‘Must Get Something’ Run
Forest’s next 3 games see two home games against Newcastle and Wolves before a trip to Elland Road. If they get minimal points from this run we could see Forest slide into the relegation zone.
Home vs Away
As already stated Forest have made the City Ground a fortress. the 11th best home record in the league seeing them get 20 of their 26 points. Away from home however they have just 1 win and 3 draws. Continuing their home form is gonna be so important if Forest are to avoid a slide into the final few games.
Despite currently being 14th Forest fans should temper expectations ahead of the final 12 games cause they could be left in tears.
Nick Bird - Sports Journalist 